Working smarter not just harder

It is now the end of July and America has faced some of the worst economic conditions it has seen in generations. I have held off on contributing to this blog for a while because I wanted to see how things would develop in the short term. Economic stimuli notwithstanding, it seems at the very least we are past the “scared phase” and perhaps have begun to move into a sort of “acceptance phase”. My commitment to this blog is to focus on technology, training, and careers, and not politics; and, while the two may now be intertwined (it would be hard to argue against that), permit us to consider IT in hard times.

The thing is IT has seen hard times frequently in the past. Particularly in boom-and-bust industries it is common to see a company hire a huge number of people, work them hard, and then let them go once the whatever-it-is gets complete. I, personally, have witnessed the huge swings for technology in defense contracting, finance, chip manufacturing (a la Silicon Valley circa 1985), dot-com, and the like.

Typically when profits are down, one of the first places companies cut are in technology expansion. This is not to say that technology gets cut – au contrair – technology is a pillar to business. Rather, it is to say that spending in technological upgrades (computers, software, operating systems, and networks) does decrease as companies try to “make due”. The good news is that companies cannot make due indefinitely and when the new comes in, it is usually accompanied by new people with new training.

An interesting observation was made by Jim Brazell of Ventureramp, Inc. who recently spoke at the HITEC conference in Scottsdale, AZ. On his web site he writes:

“Responses from the Humanities, Liberal Arts and Fine Arts communities include concerns about the focus on training technicians rather than innovators, thinkers, designers and problem solvers. At the same time, many CTE teachers and administrators are working to integrate and partner with academic programs to increase rigor and relevance for “Millennial learners.” Closing the distance between CTE and academic disciplines represents a Renaissance in US education.” [link]

The well-taken point here is that for IT always, and especially during down times, we need “thinking techs”. Keep in mind that it is relatively easy to create techs. There are schools who specialize in doing nothing but. But, for a tech to rise to the top of the hiring list, that tech must also be an “innovator, thinker, designer and problem solver”. Anyone can pull wire. But why that wire and why in that location?

The admonition is to “work smarter, not just harder”.

It is for this very reason that in our CIS program at Mt Hood Community College, we train not just “what”, but “why”. This is the reason that we train toward certifications with CISCO, Oracle, and Microsoft; in our program, form accompanies function.

So, what’s ahead? Networking and database still look strong into the next decade. Information will have to be presented so GUIs and web interfaces will continue to be needed. New operating systems will drive the need for smart, local OS managers. We are also projecting significant demand for computer security people (especially in light of the recent attacks against US government web sites, the Pentagon, and the power grid).

Additionally, some significant coin is being put up for nationalized data technology for health care. The ARRA stimulus plan contributed heavily for the development of electronic health records (EHR) which can be standardized and shared between insurers and practitioners. It will be interesting to see how this last one shakes down.

Here’s the point: we are not talking about rearranging the deck chairs as the ship is sinking. It is more like we are sailing in a fog and the compass is broken. We know that we will arrive in port but are not sure exactly when. Perhaps it will be this year. Perhaps it may be in three. Now the only question is: will you be ready when we do?

Pay to Play

Not bragging, just a fact. Game development is quickly becoming an important career strategy for tech-minded students. Further, when you consider the purist perspective of programmers needing to know conditional programming, looping structures, sorts, and arrays, the reality is that if you can write a game, then you truly understand the software.

Our fledgling game development program at Mt Hood Community College was featured in The Seattle Times. Check it out:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008617055_paidtoplay12.html

The State of the Art

There is some new career data for Information Technology.

If you are in college or thinking about college, you have to put your mind out about 3 to 5 years into the future and try to predict where the needs are going to be; very difficult for IT. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2008-2009 Edition provides an excellent starting point for identifying the direction in which this economy is heading. When you are there, check out Chart 7 “Percent change in employment in occupations projected to grow fastest, 2006-16”. These are the new projections for USA careers reaching out for the next 8 years.

The BLS research indicates that the hottest career path deep into the next decade is in IT and specifically in Networking. Fourth on the list is computer software engineers, and coming in a very respectable 17th is forensic science technicians.

This is great news; and, even though we have followed the BLS research for a number of years, it is sometimes easy to get caught up in the statistics. It begs the question: who else is talking about hot careers and what are they saying? Let’s take a broad sweep of some recent news articles and postings.

If you are going to drop a wad of cash on an education, wouldn’t it be great to know if you were going to train for a career that will at least provide a living wage income? What are the degrees that will provide you the best value for your money? We call it “return on investment” (ROI) and the key word here is Value. Clare Kaufman listed on Yahoo! Education the top 5 degrees which offer the best ROI for your education dollar. The five include one MBA, 2 BS degrees, and 2 two-year degrees of which one is in IT. She writes, “Two years in school can afford techies with a wealth of applied skills in network, database, and systems administration; computer programming, Web design, and more. An IT specialist makes an average salary of $62,521…”

CNN posted an article by Anthony Balderrama on the “Ten best jobs for two-year degrees” where he lists the 10 hottest careers and the degrees behind them. Number one on his list is Computer Specialist where he notes median average wages at $71,510 and a 15% projected increase in employment. It is also valuable to note that his #10 choice degree is Computer support specialist with median wages at $42,400, which is about what the entry-level general technical graduate can expect (depending on your location).

A big part of the reason behind the high demand for IT people has to do with the incredible slump in CS and CIS enrollments in colleges since ’01. Many have written about this phenom including myself; so rather than reiterate old material, take a look at some new reports. Phillip Reese writes in the Sacrament Bee,

“In the past five years, Sacramento companies added about 4,100 computer science jobs – about 800 new jobs a year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The median annual salary for computer science jobs – including programming, Web development and help desk support – is around $70,000…. During the same period, the number of information technology degrees issued by the Los Rios and Sierra community college systems fell 65 percent, from 614 in 2002 to 213 during 2007.”

Supply low + Demand high = great paying careers

But just how high is the demand going to be? Plenty. David Pitt, an AP writer published in Boston.com reports, “According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 854,000 professional IT jobs will be added between 2006 and 2016, an increase of about 24 percent. When replacement jobs are added in, total IT job openings in the 10-year period is estimated at 1.6 million…. The bureau estimates that one in 19 new jobs created in the 10-year period will be professional IT positions.” That’s 1.6 million new IT jobs needing 1.6 million new workers.

So, what’s hot in IT? Probably the best people to ask would be the ones looking forward. Eric Chabrow blogged on CIO Insight where the hottest IT jobs are, and unsurprisingly, the hottest two are networking and computer support with systems analysts in a close third. Deb Perelman’s BLS analysis in eweek.com points squarely at security as the next hot niche.

All of this is exciting news, and we have not even begun to talk about other hot items such as the new Health Informatics (HI) industry which is so new and so strong that we cannot even yet see its boundaries, nor IT management such as Database (DBM) which has to get hot if only because there are so few in the pipeline.

So while many believe that 2008 is the year, we in IT academia must have our focus out to 2012 thru 2016 by preparing you to be relevant in that job market.

Snap!

Good News for IT

The news on the nation’s economic front is harsh, and all pointers seem to indicate that things will not get better anytime soon. So, what does that mean to students interested in pursuing a career in information systems? It turns out: plenty. And in all reality, there is a high likelihood that the economic downturn will actually spur growth in IT related careers.

Here’s why: when money is in short supply (for whatever reason), companies will turn to tech for labor saving solutions. However, even though the technology increases, humans will remain the same. Thus, people who are general technologists and are already coming into great demand should see and even higher demand for their skills. We are already seeing an increase locally in people who can fix general problems and have the ability to communicate with the “norms”. If you know lots of buzzwords, fine; but, it is the tech who speaks the common language which is in greatest demand.

It gets better.

Travel costs are going through the roof right now. This means a solid increase in travel-saving – even commute-saving – solutions. That means distributed and that means web. So watch for a sharp increase in demand for people with networking and web design abilities. Watch particularly for wireless web solutions as the mobile computer continues to be the “right arm” of business. Information needs to flow and workers will insist on solutions that are comfortable and familiar. CISCO should remain high on the list. Also, keep an eye on web solutions such as php and ASP.NET. Some may argue, but check the want ads for yourself.

But wait, there’s still more.

The distributed solution also demands greater attention to data design and security. See my previous posts on the amount of new data expected to be generated, and consider that when tons of petabytes are on the move, it will be the people who can capture, organize, and mine those data who will be in greatest demand; especially since there are so few of you to begin with. Look into careers that include SQL at some level and especially if the SQL solution has strong web connections.

If you are a little farther up the food-chain, watch for information management positions. It is like the difference between smart and wise. There are so many pieces to consider and a good manager can take those pieces and make a complete picture. These folks need to have strong basic business skills.

Finally, there is one more point to consider. Sure the economy is looking down; but, I’ve seen this before. In fact, I’ve seen in twice. And each time things got bad, the bad times eventually passed. I believe they will pass again this time. It may take a year or even three, but they will pass. And, if you are new to IT or looking at IT as a career choice, consider that it will take you at least 3 to 5 years before you complete your education. This means that there is a real chance that while you are in school, the storm will pass.

And, when you graduate, you could very well be stepping into a whole new opportunity for IT professionals that we have only now begun to realize.

Music for Eons

For the first of April, and to break with the tradition of prima diem hoaxes, I wanted to take a casual moment and ask the question: “How can I get my mind around the Zettabyte?”

Identified as 10E21 (10 to the 21st power), it is a lot of data. And to describe ZB as stacks of books piled to Alpha Centuri makes no sense to me, I’ll try another approach.

A 160GB iPod is rated to hold 40,000 songs [link], or 250 songs per GB. At a guesstimated 3 minutes per song, 250 songs equates to 750 minutes, or 12.5 hours of continuous music – per gigabyte. By extension, my 160GB iPod can play 2,000 hours, or over 83 days, of songs (or worse, the same song 40,000 times).

Now, a ZB is 1 trillion GB. Therefore, a 1ZB device should be able to hold 25 billion songs, which could play continuous for 75 billion minutes or 142,694 years.

I wonder how that translates into triple-A batteries?

One	Songs	Minutes	Hours	Days	Years
Giga	250	750	12.50	0.521	0.001
Tera	25,000	75,000	1,250.00	52.083	0.143
Peta	2,500,000	7,500,000	125,000.00	5,208.333	14.269
Exa	250million	750million	12.5million	520,833.333	1,426.941
Zetta	25billion	75billion	1,250 million	52,083,333.333	142,694.064

Just How Much Data Is There?

About a year ago, an interesting research project concerning the “size of the digital universe”, that is, how much data is there out there – really, was released by EMC. “The Expanding Digital Universe, A Forecast of World Wide Information Growth through 2010” (2007, March) [link], is one of those articles that should be required reading for all CIS-minded individuals. The bottom line of the research is the prediction that “Between 2006 and 2010, the information added annually to the digital universe will increase more than six fold from 161 exabytes to 988 exabytes” (my emphasis).

(Very likely, this will be one of those kinds of blogs at which I will look back at and laugh. However, as this is still only 2008, it may be beneficial to exercise our minds around the EMC prediction.)

The operative word in the above citation is the word “added”. So it is not that world-wide there will be 988 exabytes (EB); it’s that by 2010, 988 exabytes will be added to what is already there. The obvious conclusion is that in terms of data storage, there must be far more that that even now. Further 1,000 exabytes will carry the moniker “zettabyte” [Wikipedia] (ZB). Thus, the next question must be “what exactly is a zettabyte”? Herein lays the problem. The minute we start speaking in astronomical terms, eyes glaze over. The challenge is not whether we can conjure up larger and larger numbers or names for numbers, rather the challenge is if can we understand what those numbers mean.

Zettabyte?

In our entry-level computer classes, we will often describe byte quantities as 1 kB is the equivalent of a single typed page of text, therefore 1MB is the equivalent of a large book (minus the images, of course), 1GB is the equivalent of 1,000 books or a large pickup truck filled with books. Most students have or have experience with devices such as the iPhone with 16GB of storage which could contain hours of video, images, music, games, and more. Hence, the gigabyte is a concept around which we can now get our minds.

Continuing, since a terabyte (TB) is 1,000 GB, using our analogy 1TB is the equivalent of 1,000 pickup trucks filled with books; perhaps the flight-deck of an aircraft carrier would fit the bill nicely. The petabyte (PB), being 1,000TB, would then be 1,000 aircraft carriers covered with 1,000 pickup trucks loaded with 1,000 books each of 1,000 pages of text. Know-center has a fun summary of how to get our minds around what is 988 exabytes [link]; however, while a ZB may indeed be a pile of books stacked all the way to Pluto, I must confess that I do not know how far it is to Pluto so the analogy is lost on me.

So What?

Since the numbers of books or trucks or aircraft carriers is really irrelevant, the angle of approach ought not be “how many” but rather “what can I do with it?” According to the EMC research, “over 95% of the digital universe is ‘unstructured data’ – meaning its content cannot be truly represented by its location in the computer record, such as name, address, or date of last transaction” [p13]. What this means is that while we may create 1ZB of data in 2010, only 5EB of it is actually locatable. Think of it like this: supposing you worked and earned a dollar and then got paid only five cents, the rest being lost to eternity. Some would look at this and be discouraged.

I look at this and see opportunity.

If there is one area in IT where there is desperate need of quality individuals, it is in data base management. There is so much data floating around and relatively zero management, most companies and countries understand that it is not the data but the data management. So the need is definitely there. The problem is, there is not the supply.

When we look at computer education across the nation, while Computer Science (CS) programs are still taking the hit, Computer Information Systems (CIS) programs are staging a comeback. Debra Pearlman wrote two excellent articles for eWeek on this matter (for information on CS enrollments, see “CS Degree Interest Plummeted Since 2000” [eWeek, 2008, March 4], but make sure to remove all sharp objects from the room; for information on CIS career opportunity, see “Tech Job Sector Growing at Record Paces Through 2016” [eWeek, 2007, December 6]).

So, how many zettabytes will be created by 2016? Perhaps by then we will have an iPod that can contain enough music videos to keep one entertained until the sun implodes. Perhaps we will be able to pick up a 1 yottabyte flash drive at Office Depot. Or not. But the reality is that whatever that number will be, the number that needs to be impacted is the 95%.

That is the opportunity.

Where are the eBooks?

There must have been over 300 records on my shelves. There were LPs, EPs, and even some 45s although I did not collect 45s so they were probably belonged to my sister. There even a number of old classical 78s that I got from who knows where. But these records were classics: an original Beatles White Album press from the UK, Neil Diamond, Herb Alpert no less, and a Barry Manilow(?) (how did that get there?). These records, this “history” of the audio 60s and 70s had been sitting on my shelf for years, and the best part was – I didn’t even have a turntable.

When the technology changed, we all changed with it. Compact Discs were a smash that revolutionized the world. CDs were smaller, safer, and far superior to LPs. And even though we had to buy new devices to use them, we embraced CDs quickly. I have a cabinet with several hundred CDs in it, and probably another dozen in my car.

But the technology changed again. With MP3s came the ability to use yet another tech device with selectivity, fabulous fidelity, and total portability. Downloadable music (and now videos, movies, tutorials, lecture notes, and on and on) that I can store on my multiple-gigabytes player means that I can have all the entertainment I want with effectively zero storage. The change to “downloadables” is so profound that the CD industry has been in the tank for years and may very soon come to a close (you don’t see record stores anymore, soon you will not see CD and DVD stores either). At the end of the day, we were all too willing to give up our old ways of listening to music and move to the new technology which was always smaller, cheaper, better, and sexier.

However…

The other day, I was at the bookstore and saw the rows upon rows of books in all shapes and categories. I thought about how much floor space the books were taking up. I thought about the paper that went into manufacture, the mills and factories that created, the workers that labored, and the trucks that transported. There were books from far away places that had to be shipped – in a real ship. It is no wonder that the markup on books, especially school textbooks, is so high. And I thought, “Why are we not moving to digital books in the same way we moved to digital music?”

eBooks have been around for a while. In fact, the entire premise of SGML and HTML was to convert humanity’s textual information into a digital format that could be transmitted and rendered. Remember the “Information Super Highway”? And, while the Internet itself has exploded, and people are truly reading things on their computers (after all, you are reading this on your computer), eBooks are almost non-existent.

It is a frustrating conversation. Think about this the next time you are standing in that long, long line at the campus bookstore waiting forever for the privilege of dropping $500 for this term’s 50 pounds worth of textbooks (and will in 10 weeks sell back to the very same store for about $20): you could have downloaded the lot in a few seconds onto your flash drive or a 20 ounce reader -- and, for about a third of the price.

So, why are more people not going to eBooks? It seems that there is a certain “comfort” in a physical book. People have talked to me about curling up in front of a fire, or using book marks, or some aesthetic warmth that a physical book offers. Students have told me that they struggled with eBooks (Once someone told me that they spent the entire day in front of a computer to work and they did not want to spend the evening in front of a computer to read. So I asked her what she did do in the evening, and she said “watch TV”). Others have pointed out that while eBooks do offer a particular savings in manufacture and distribution, several texts priced in the $90 range were selling as eBooks in the middle $70s when they should have been priced around $15. Readers for eBooks are also still problematic. Borders sold a rather nice eBook device over the holidays for about $400. I can get a cheap laptop for that much; and it would come with a keyboard, applications, multi-gigabyte hard drive, and wireless Internet access.

Books survive, and perhaps for a while longer. And in my office are shelves and shelves of books some of which I have never read and some of which I will never read again; it is quite impressive. Besides, when all my books have been digitized, who will be impressed at my shelves and shelves of nothing?